Waiting for North Korea to surrender its entire nuclear stockpile all at once is a pipe dream. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung knows this, and he's finally saying it out loud to international press ahead of the United Nations General Assembly meetings.
Instead of chasing an impossible "all-or-nothing" agreement, Seoul is pushing for a practical, step-by-step roadmap to freeze, reduce, and eventually dismantle Pyongyang's weapons program.
Estimates put North Korea's nuclear arsenal anywhere from 57 warheads, according to recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, to well over 100 according to independent nuclear watchdogs. Waiting until total denuclearization can happen in a single stroke only gives Pyongyang more time to churn out enriched uranium and test advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles. Lee argues that stopping the moving vehicle is the only logical first move.
The Reality of Phased Diplomacy
Critics always point to the same flaw in incremental deals. They worry that North Korea will pocket sanctions relief, pocket economic aid, and then quietly keep its hidden centrifuges spinning behind the scenes.
Lee's counter-argument is simple: you manage that risk by offering concrete concessions only after verifiable rollbacks take place. You stop the testing and freeze current fissile material production first. You reduce capabilities second. Dismantlement comes down the line only when trust and verifiable verification mechanisms are locked in place.
It's a stark contrast to past diplomatic efforts that collapsed because both sides demanded total capitulation before the first meeting even adjourned.
Dealing with Washington and Pyongyang
The timing of Lee's push is delicate. Washington and Seoul are currently trying to figure out how to coax Kim Jong Un back to the negotiating table. Trump recently scaled back major military exercises with South Korea, citing his self-described good relationship with the North Korean leader.
Pyongyang responded with predictable hostility, firing off multiple rounds of weapons tests and dismissing the exercise downsizing as a half-measure that doesn't change American military posture.
Lee is trying to bridge that gap. He called Trump's move a deliberate signal of non-hostility, but he also needs to ensure Seoul isn't sidelined in any backchannel diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang.
The Alliance Test
The U.S.-South Korea alliance has faced friction points recently, particularly after Trump publicly noted that Lee declined to join Washington's naval posture regarding Iran. Lee's administration has made it clear that South Korean military assets will remain focused on protecting vital regional shipping lanes, like the Gulf of Aden, rather than getting entangled in Middle Eastern conflicts.
Despite those differences, Seoul and Washington share deep economic and strategic ties. Lee points to upcoming industrial cooperation, such as joint shipbuilding partnerships designed to revitalize American naval power while boosting South Korean manufacturing, as proof that the alliance runs deeper than minor diplomatic disagreements.
As world leaders gather in New York, the real test won't be speechmaking. It will be whether Washington and Seoul can present a unified front that makes incremental engagement look more attractive to Pyongyang than continuous missile testing.
